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Easy rider revisited

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An easy rider for our a-quant mobile app users!!
From our quantamental ideas/signals back in June.
Short at 44.16 , UBER now at 33.25 for a 24.7% profit.
Close the position on Friday!

A Fintech Payments play

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Nowadays , almost everybody is talking and probably using fintech solutions, especially in the smart payments sector. Such a name with great potential came up to our quantitative model’s attention, which is based on fundamental factors , SEC filings + analyst reports sentiment analysis, as well as price action based technical factors.
Evo Payments (EVOP) is a US based company with a market cap of 2.6 Billion USD and a very considerable & fast evolving client base in the US & abroad. The filings and analyst & hedge fund reports give a very positive sentiment towards the stock and the funds’s interest has been growing steady and nicely.
It’s a July 2018 IPO, now at 31.53 that popped up in our model’s screen and gives us a probability of >71% to surpass 40 USD the next 6 months.
Taking into account its volatility we would start building a position for the next months. Potentially it may become a multi-bagger holding in our portfolio.

Mobile App Trading Signals Performance Evaluation

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The Mobile App Indices&Commodities Trading Signals(you can verify it at our mobile app easily)
May 2019 – June 2019 – 2 months period
Total trades : 30
Win rate: 83.3% (25/30 win)
Average win: +0.34%
Average loss: -1.082%
Profit per Trade Expected Value: +0.1% per trade
Biggest Loss : -1.42%
Total Performance : 3.09% (Leverage 1:1)
Annualized Performance : 20%

Last week for FX mobile trading signals
Trading period: 25/6 – 28/6
Total trades: 30
Profitable trades: 25
Win rate: 83.33%
Net profit: 138.5 pips (=1.3% performance in a 1:1 leverage strategy per position opened)

Easy Rider ? Not so!

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An excellent & lovely service , everyone of us uses doesn’t necessarily implies an excellent investment opportunity and UBER may be such a case. UBER one of the recent & most anticipated IPOs has been facing many headwinds and our quantamental model has raised a SHORT flag.
Based on technical & fundamental factors , UBER now at 44.16 has a greater than 75% chance of underperforming the market within 2019. More specifically a price of 37 – 40 USD , a 10-20% fall from recent levels , has a chance of 72% the next 1-5 months. IPOs especially at their first months after their debut are very volatile up to some weeks after their unlock period.

Games we play

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Almost verybody likes playing games and all of us know characters like Mario, Yoshi, Pokemon , Zelda etc. Now there maybe a nice chance to profit from these , by buying the Nintendo (NTDOY) stock. The company which owns all the above characters and produces consoles & video game titles & characters is on our quant model’s radar, which has recently given its stock a very positive BUY signal based on fundamentals & technical factors. NTDOY at 44.13 currently has a greater than 72% chance to move higher than 20% in the next 6-7 months. Given a relatively not very bad market , the stock will over perform the market by a considerable margin , although its volatility must be taken into account when adding to our portfolio. $NTDOY $QUANT $STOCKS

A not so cloudy cloud SW stock

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In the recent full of mines environment is very hard to find opportunities , without being ready to sustain the possible short term pain. But in harsh conditions and even worse than this of the last days, there is a real chance to identify some real gems. One of this, is Paylocity Holding Corporation (PCTY) which is a cloud SW firm providing payroll & human resources management services. The stock now at 101.42 got a green flag from our stock selection quantamental model based on fundamentals & technical factors as inputs. It has a 85% chance of outperforming the market in the next 3-6 months, even though it had a run of more than 65% in 2019. We would suggest opening a small position and add gradually to it, if the market stabilizes and our hypothesis starts working.

Invest in shipping comeback

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If we want to invest in the shipping industry and particularly in the dry bulk freight rates , one of the best options is the BDRY (ETF) which invests straight in these rates. The rates in the industry are in a historical low , partly due to some one time issues like the Brazil iron ore production and although always things can get worse , the probabilities favor long positions. There are already some signs that prices have bottomed out and our quantamental model has already raised a flag for a long positions. Even though its market cap is very low (3-4m USD) , the fund is open ended , so it can accommodate any size investment. Its price currently stands at 10.73 and our model gives a probability of more than 70% to surpass 13.5 USD the next 3-4 months.

VYGR A promising Biotech Play

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In this difficult market , with China problems and trade wars on the surface , there are some uncorrelated with the market choices like some particular biotech stocks. Most of biotech is not for the fainthearted to say the least, but there are few names , which may reward handsomely the brave & knowledgeable investors. Our quantamental model indicates VYGR(Voyager Therapeutics) is such a case. Even though it has more than doubled the last 2 months and now is around 17.00 USD , there is still more room to run and our model gives a 75% chance to surpass 24 USD, the next 3-4 months for a greater than 40% gain. More conservative investors would be even more happy to be able to wait for a possible retracement to the 15 USD level.

Posted on our mobile app Trading Ideas tab (8th of March) , currently available at Google store( https://lnkd.in/dQMfydE) & soon available at Apple store as well. hashtagVYGR currently at 18.57 (9.2% gain so far).
VYGR currently at 18.57 (9.2% gain so far).

Can online Forex signals be profitable?

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A lot of traders are wondering if Forex Signals can be profitable for them.

Here is a simple example that can describe whether a trader can gain or not by using FX Signals:

-You will have to pay either by volume or via a monthly fee

– There is always an uncertainty in the revenues/profits made from the signals provided. Even if the signals are good, you have to factor in trading costs (slippage, spread, commissions etc…)

– You have the risk exposure of the trades the signal provider has send you

Therefore (Uncertain revenues) – (A monthly fee + Volume traded + Costs of trading) * (1 – All Risk) = Not always profitable.

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