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Some Pure Speculation

ONTX(Onconova Therapeutics) a biotech company, hard-beaten by the markets the previous years show some signs of life and may be close to a strong reversal. Now(closing of 1/3/2020) at a price of 0.49 USD with a tiny market cap of 49 mil USD & having lost almost 90% of its cap in 2019 is another full of promises went bad biotech story. But our quantamental model for Biotech stocks has raised a flag pointing that there is a great chance for a possible reversal back to 1-3 USD share price, within the next 3-6 months. That’s a 100%-500% possible gain , but the risks are very big and the asset’s high volatility make it a choice suited more for the wild west type of traders.

An easy rider for our a-quant mobile app users!!
From our quantamental ideas/signals back in June.
Short at 44.16 , UBER now at 33.25 for a 24.7% profit.
Close the position on Friday!

Nowadays , almost everybody is talking and probably using fintech solutions, especially in the smart payments sector. Such a name with great potential came up to our quantitative model’s attention, which is based on fundamental factors , SEC filings + analyst reports sentiment analysis, as well as price action based technical factors.
Evo Payments (EVOP) is a US based company with a market cap of 2.6 Billion USD and a very considerable & fast evolving client base in the US & abroad. The filings and analyst & hedge fund reports give a very positive sentiment towards the stock and the funds’s interest has been growing steady and nicely.
It’s a July 2018 IPO, now at 31.53 that popped up in our model’s screen and gives us a probability of >71% to surpass 40 USD the next 6 months.
Taking into account its volatility we would start building a position for the next months. Potentially it may become a multi-bagger holding in our portfolio.

The Mobile App Indices&Commodities Trading Signals(you can verify it at our mobile app easily)
May 2019 – June 2019 – 2 months period
Total trades : 30
Win rate: 83.3% (25/30 win)
Average win: +0.34%
Average loss: -1.082%
Profit per Trade Expected Value: +0.1% per trade
Biggest Loss : -1.42%
Total Performance : 3.09% (Leverage 1:1)
Annualized Performance : 20%

Last week for FX mobile trading signals
Trading period: 25/6 – 28/6
Total trades: 30
Profitable trades: 25
Win rate: 83.33%
Net profit: 138.5 pips (=1.3% performance in a 1:1 leverage strategy per position opened)

An excellent & lovely service , everyone of us uses doesn’t necessarily implies an excellent investment opportunity and UBER may be such a case. UBER one of the recent & most anticipated IPOs has been facing many headwinds and our quantamental model has raised a SHORT flag.
Based on technical & fundamental factors , UBER now at 44.16 has a greater than 75% chance of underperforming the market within 2019. More specifically a price of 37 – 40 USD , a 10-20% fall from recent levels , has a chance of 72% the next 1-5 months. IPOs especially at their first months after their debut are very volatile up to some weeks after their unlock period.

Almost verybody likes playing games and all of us know characters like Mario, Yoshi, Pokemon , Zelda etc. Now there maybe a nice chance to profit from these , by buying the Nintendo (NTDOY) stock. The company which owns all the above characters and produces consoles & video game titles & characters is on our quant model’s radar, which has recently given its stock a very positive BUY signal based on fundamentals & technical factors. NTDOY at 44.13 currently has a greater than 72% chance to move higher than 20% in the next 6-7 months. Given a relatively not very bad market , the stock will over perform the market by a considerable margin , although its volatility must be taken into account when adding to our portfolio. $NTDOY $QUANT $STOCKS

In the recent full of mines environment is very hard to find opportunities , without being ready to sustain the possible short term pain. But in harsh conditions and even worse than this of the last days, there is a real chance to identify some real gems. One of this, is Paylocity Holding Corporation (PCTY) which is a cloud SW firm providing payroll & human resources management services. The stock now at 101.42 got a green flag from our stock selection quantamental model based on fundamentals & technical factors as inputs. It has a 85% chance of outperforming the market in the next 3-6 months, even though it had a run of more than 65% in 2019. We would suggest opening a small position and add gradually to it, if the market stabilizes and our hypothesis starts working.

If we want to invest in the shipping industry and particularly in the dry bulk freight rates , one of the best options is the BDRY (ETF) which invests straight in these rates. The rates in the industry are in a historical low , partly due to some one time issues like the Brazil iron ore production and although always things can get worse , the probabilities favor long positions. There are already some signs that prices have bottomed out and our quantamental model has already raised a flag for a long positions. Even though its market cap is very low (3-4m USD) , the fund is open ended , so it can accommodate any size investment. Its price currently stands at 10.73 and our model gives a probability of more than 70% to surpass 13.5 USD the next 3-4 months.