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A very volatile week for EURUSD passed by. The bearish direction of the instrument, reversed after Fed opened door to easing last Wednesday. It followed by three strongly bullish days and pair closed at 1.1367 on Friday. We believe that this is a temporary reaction and sooner or later, EURUSD will return back to its bearish trend. German Consumer Price Index on Thursday and Euro-zone Consumer Price Index on Friday may cause volatility for EUR but the speech of Mr. Powell on Tuesday, regarding the monetary policy is more important for the pair. Also, Advance Goods Trade Balance on Wednesday and the annualized US GDP on Thursday are important reasons for big movements. G20 starts in Osaka on Friday so we’ll favor quick & opportunistic trades.
GBPUSD was influenced by Fed after Wednesday too, with a series of bullish days. The resistance of 1.2765 though is quite difficult to be broken but in such a case we may see the pair significantly higher. The important speech at BoE on Wednesday and UK GDP on Friday, along with US economy news may occur strong movements for the instrument. G20 starts in Osaka on Friday so we’ll favor quick & opportunistic trades.
The consolidation period for USDJPY is over. Instrument moved lower as we had estimated and currently it’s moving below 108. Price approached 107 on Friday but later it returned back to its opening price at the area of 107.30. This fact shows us that there’s an uncertainty at the market that’s why we’ll avoid positions this week. The important news for Japanese economy is mainly the Retail Trade on Thursday and the Jobless Rate on Friday.
EURJPY finally took the target of 121 that we had set and after that it turned bullish on Friday, closing above the opening of the week. It sounds like a new momentum for the pair, we will follow it by opening buy positions with a target 122.80
Staying out last week was indeed a very good choice for EURGBP since it had a clear uncertainty. Last two days were bullish though and we will follow this trend with first target 0.8970 and second one at the area of 0.9060. 0.90 is a very strong resistance and we need to be careful by minimizing any possible risk.
We stayed out last week on USDCAD but after the strong bearish reaction last week, a new downtrend seems to established. We’re looking for target at the area of 1.3070. Canadian GDP announcement on Friday demands special attention and low risk.
USDCHF broke the price of 0.98 with some lag but the bearish momentum is indisputable. The area of 0.9720 is very possible.
AUDUSD hit the price of 0.6830 and then moved up with quite bullish days last Tuesday and Thursday. This week we’re buyers with targets 0.6960 and 0.6990. 0.70 is a milestone for the instrument so we’ll be very careful around this price. Governor Lowe’s speech on Monday and a few Chinese announcements at the end of the week may influence AUD. The dominator this week will be indeed USD with its important news.
SP500 had a clear bullish week and it reached the 2,940-2,960 points. We believe that it cannot keep these levels because this price area is a very strong and important resistance. In combination with our Machine Learning models, possibly, we’ll see a bearish reaction this week. In this case we’re looking for a target at the area of 2,910 points and maybe 2,870 points.
Index reached the target of 12,300 points that we had set and above 12,400 points it had a retracement at the area of 12.260 points. Since the area of 12,400-12,500 points is a hard resistance for the Index, we’re looking for small and opportunistic long trades this week with targets 1%-1.5%.
Staying out last week was an excellent choice. No signals, no patterns, no trend, no results from Machine Learning models lead us to stay out again.
Gold didn’t stop its strong uptrend last week and finally it took the price of $1,400 (closed at $1399.31 on Friday). These levels are extremely overbought for Gold, it’s very possible to see a big pullback at the area of $1,360 or even lower. Our sell positions will be low-risk though.
US Oil moved up, it even broke the important resistance of $55 and closed at $57.55 last week. It seems that the bulls are here for good and we will open buy positions this week with main target the area of $59.70