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As we successfully estimated, the pair tried the important support of 1.1110 and had a strong bullish reaction that drove the price above 1.12. Euro elections didn’t have any pleasant or unpleasant surprises relative to predictions, so the bearish trend is still on. We would try sell positions with take profit some pips above 1.110. If the 1.1110 castle is conquered then it’s very possible to see the price at the area of 1.10 or even 1.08. Current week is full of news: on Wednesday (French GDP and German Unemployment rate), on Thursday (USA GDP & Advance Goods Trade Balance) and on Friday (German CPI and USA PCE). Monday is a public holiday in US (Memorial Day).
Euro elections in UK had a clear winner and this is the Brexit party of Nigel Farage. The result was not bigger than the expected though and this gave a sense to the markets and to the traders that the uncertainty is over. Last Thursday, price closed very closely to the open price and this stopped the bearish trend for the moment. Last Friday was bullish, confirmed the oversold levels of the instrument. The overall bearish trend has not changed and we will favor sell positions this week too. Monday is a public holiday in UK (Spring Bank Holiday) but there is some other news, mostly on Friday that may increase volatility.
USDJPY had a very strong bearish reaction last week and it tried the support of 109. We will wait for the important speech of Mr. Kuroda in Tokyo on Wednesday and then we will decide for the instrument’s trend. There will be some short-term bullish reactions above 109 though.
EURJPY was in a consolidation last week, very close to the important support of 122. Things are not clear and we will open sell positions only if this support is broken. In this case the main target will be a few pips above 120.
EURGBP took the price of 0.8820 as we predicted but above this level, we had a retracement below 0.88. Most likely the uptrend will carry on and next target is 0.8925. Brexit issues though must keep us in low risk.
As we estimated at our last week’s report, USDCHF tried again the rate of 1:1. Then it had a bullish pullback, up to 1.0060 but we believe that maybe this is the week that we will see the price below 1:1. In such a case we’re looking for profit a few pips above 0.99. News that may affect CHF are on Tuesday (Swiss GDP), Wednesday (KOF Leading Indicator) and Friday (Retail Sales).
Finally, the domination of the liberal party at last week’s Australia elections, helped the instrument to stop its free-fall. Price closed on Friday above 0.69 (0.6925) and maybe this signifies a new bullish trend for the pair. We will prefer buy positions this week as we believe that the price will reach the area of 0.70 again.
A very bad week for SP500 passed by. Price fell down even to the levels of 2,800 points and only Friday had a weak bullish reaction. The USA-China trade war makes things very uncertain and we will avoid high risk positions this week, except some long opportunistic buy positions. Monday is a public holiday for USA (Memorial Day) but Index may be very volatile on Tuesday, Thursday and Friday due to important news for the US economy.
DAX30 had a bearish week with very strong bearish days: Monday and Thursday. Euro elections are over and things will back to relative normality regarding the politics. Our choice for the current week is long positions with a low risk. Target is the area above 12,300 points.
A clear bearish week for the Index passed by. Friday low reached the area above 7,200 points and the volatile environment due to Brexit, recent Euro elections and the government crisis, clearly advise us to stay out.
Last week, price hit the price of 98.25 but then there were two very bearish days (Thursday and Friday) that pushed the Index back again to the area of 97.50. We believe that maybe it’s the beginning of a new downtrend and we’ll follow it by opening sell positions. First target is 96.80 and then 96.40.
Gold had a strong bullish reaction last week, mostly on last Thursday. It didn’t break $1,300 though and it makes us believe that the downtrend has not changed. We will prefer short positions with target above $1,266 if only there’s a short-term movement to the bearish direction. Having said that, we ‘ll keep an eye on the USD, due to its negative correlation with Gold. Possible prolonged weakness of USD may keep the Gold price afloat and helped it to reach higher levels.
US Oil turned into a very strong downtrend last week till the area of $57,30. Our strategy this week is opening break-in range positions (long positions close to the area of $55 and short positions close to the area of $60).